Saturday, March 15, 2008

Fantasy Baseball Advice: Volume 1

I know this blog has been devoted entirely to basketball up to this point, but I have a big fantasy baseball draft Monday night. I figured I'd sift through my pre-rankings and provide some advice to my fellow cyber managers. In this volume, I'll focus on infielders.

At catcher, Cubs' youngster Geovany Soto is getting plenty of hype in the fantasy community. I don't know what to think of the kid -- he performed well in a short-term scenario last season, but I don't think he's a sure thing like Russell Martin was last year. I stole Martin in the 21st round of my deep draft last season, because he had already shown his versatility in the form of stolen bases, and the Dodgers' organization kept suggesting that he was their second-half MVP in 2006. Soto didn't have anywhere near that type of impact in 2007. He did well, but I won't be looking to steal him from anyone.

Pre-ranking: 11th catcher. In the vicinity of Ramon Hernandez and Jason Varitek.

Texas' Jarrod Saltalamacchia is another interesting young catcher. "Salty" got hot for the Braves before being dealt to the Rangers last season, and managed to do fairly well with Texas. I like his size and power, the Rangers have an excellent hitters' park, and Salty's also eligible at first base. However, my research tells me that Gerald Laird is going to be Texas' everyday catcher, and lefty Ben Broussard has the job at first. So Salty may very well begin the year in the minors. I think he'll find his way up a few times, though. He's a wild card.

Pre-ranking: bottom of the catchers' list. Could have value later on in the season.

At first base, there's been much debate about the top of the list. It's basically a three-man race: Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder. I've already revealed my hand -- that's the order I have them in.

Pujols is one of the greatest hitters of all time, and even though his lineup protection is limited this season, he'll find a way to hit 35-40 homers and drive in 110-120 runs with a batting average over .300.

Howard got off to an extremely slow start last season, but he tore the cover off the ball in the second half. I believe his second half performance is more indicative of the year he's going to have this season, as the big fella will continue to take advantage of the friendly confines in Philly.

For some reason, I'm a little skeptical about Fielder. Honestly, I think it's his weight that concerns me, because it definitely isn't his swing. Fielder is clearly smoother than Pujols mechanically, and he's better technically than Howard. He hits to all fields and may compliment his power numbers with a .300 average for many years to come.

A couple of other first basemen to watch are the Dodgers' James Loney and the Pirates' Adam LaRoche. Loney has a sweet lefty stroke and he's extremely calm and poised for such a young hitter. Like Fielder, he hits the ball to all fields, and while he doesn't explode with the same regularity, Loney is a capable long-ball hitter. Pre-ranking: 13th first baseman. Around Adrian Gonzalez and Todd Helton.

LaRoche is one of those guys who just looks like a monster at the plate. He's tall, relaxed, has an extremely long swing and a load of homerun power. He's a bit of a free swinger and he strikes out at a pretty high rate, but in his second season in Pittsburgh I expect him to be more settled and accustomed to the offensive backdrop. Pre-ranking: 16th first baseman. In the area of Kevin Youkilis and Carlos Delgado.

At second base, it's mostly a toss-up. There's no question that Chase Utley, Brandon Phillips and B.J. Upton are the class of the position, while Robinson Cano, Brian Roberts, Chone Figgins and Dan Uggla round out the extended group of elites. In the teens, Dustin Pedroia, Kelly Johnson, Placido Polanco and Howie Kendrick can really go in any order -- depends on the roster needs at that particular juncture in your draft.

Toward the bottom of the list two youngsters to keep an eye on are the Indians' Asdrubal Cabrera and the Rockies' Jayson Nix. Both could be reasonable late-round picks, however I don't see either having an incredible influence on this fantasy season.

At third base, I think the Reds' Edwin Encarnacion is the player with the most upside in the teens. I love the Reds' ballpark for fantasy hitters and Encarnacion's confidence should be high after a comeback second half last year. However, the issue still remains with Ryan Freel rotating in from center field to play some third base. The Reds have some big-time prospects they may wanna work in in the outfield and they'll still want to sneak Freel's speed into the lineup. But if Encarnacion gets steady playing time I'd say 25 homers and 90 RBI at least.

Pre-ranking: 12th third baseman. Around Hank Blalock.

The Twins' Mike Lamb is a deep sleeper at third base. Lamb has been an excellent part-time hitter for the Astros in recent years, and it seems as if he's finally getting the opportunity to start. I don't know if he'll produce against lefties, but he should hit right around .300 against right-handers. I could see 15-20 homers and 75-85 RBI.

Pre-ranking: 23rd third baseman. In the vicinity of Scott Rolen and Nomar Garciaparra. (Haha, look at those two names. Five years ago they were both top five at their position. Times change.)

At shortstop, I'm not sold on sophomore Troy Tulowitzki. I know Coors Field makes him a very enticing pick, but I watched the playoffs very closely last year and "Tulo" showed me almost nothing at the plate. Granted, the regular season pitching will be easier to tee off on. I still have him in my top 10 shortstops, I just don't think he's a top 5 guy like most fantasy magazines and websites are projecting. I'd take Carlos Guillen or Miguel Tejada before him.

Pre-ranking: 7th shortstop. Near Guillen and Edgar Renteria.

Don't take the bait on J.J. Hardy, either. J.J. had an incredible first half last year and was a legitimate NL MVP candidate at the midway point. He quickly came back to earth in the second half and looked like the .240 hitter he had been in the past. I don't think he's a total dud, I'm merely saying I'd go with safer selections like Rafael Furcal and Orlando Cabrera.

Pre-ranking: 12th shortstop. Around Cabrera and Stephen Drew.

Speaking of Stephen Drew, he's a guy who people were in love with prior to the 2007 campaign. His regular season numbers were extremely disappointing, but I think he came into his own in the playoffs. Drew features a pretty left-handed swing and is an excellent gap hitter. He's not quite as strong as his brother J.D., but I think Stephen is in for his first impressive regular season. Strengths should be total bases and runs scored.

No comments: