Tuesday, March 18, 2008

Fantasy Baseball Advice: Second Edition

In volume two, I'll take a look at the deep list of outfielders. Selecting outfielders can get tricky because the range of individual strengths is wider at this position than any other. Meaning, first basemen are generally slow-footed run producers, second basemen are usually smaller guys who hit for average and score runs -- yet outfielders can be monster homerun hitters or speedy little steals specialists.

I think the Rockies' Matt Holliday is a runaway for the No. 1 spot in the outfield. He has no weaknesses -- he hits homers, drives in a ton of runs, scores runs, hits for average, plays in a hitters' ballpark, and even gets his share of steals. He's young and durable, and he should be a fantasy animal again this year.

Spots two through seven are highly interchangeable. I like Carlos Beltran for the No. 2 spot because he managed to hit 33 homers and drive in 112 runs last year despite missing a significant number of games. For that very same reason, some people may not like Beltran. He's a bit injury prone, and although his offseason knee surgery went extremely well, some will be rightfully skeptical of his durability. I don't think Beltran will miss more than 20 games overall, and the Mets need him more than ever with Carlos Delgado on the downside of his career.

Others to consider from two to seven are Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Lee, Grady Sizemore, Magglio Ordonez and Carl Crawford.

Like Ryan Howard, Soriano struggled mightily during the first half of the 2007 season, but he settled in during part two -- particularly in the last month and a half. Soriano is always a source of homeruns and steals, but his RBI total will depend on his position in Sweet Lou's batting order. The latest reports say he has Soriano penciled in for the No. 2 position -- like the one-spot, it won't allow for exceptional run production.

Lee is one of the premier RBI guys in the Majors, and he'll likely enjoy the company of Miguel Tejada this season. Tejada will provide protection for "El Caballo," as will Lance Berkman, Hunter Pence and perhaps even Ty Wigginton. El Caballo should be set for a monster year and I expect him to take more advantage of the Astros' short porch in left. Homers should jump from low 30s to 38-42. 150 RBI isn't an impossibility.

Sizemore's batting average dipped during the regular season last year, but he impressed in the playoffs. Reports are that he is tearing it up this spring, and I have to believe he'll be closer to .300 this season. Sizemore will certainly be among the leaders in runs scored and extra-base hits, and unlike Crawford, he's a "speed guy" who definitely deserves to be considered with this group of top outfielders.

Crawford's obviously a different story. Yahoo Sports actually had a decent column a couple of weeks back about the unwarranted fantasy hype that accompanies Crawford. They had it right. He's solid -- he's a top steals and triples guy -- but he's not a first or second round pick in an average-sized fantasy draft. He lacks the homerun pop of Sizemore or even Curtis Granderson, and the Rays have an unproven lineup that could shrink his runs scored total. There's little to differentiate Crawford from the Rockies' Willy Taveras, who generally goes in the middle-to-late rounds.

Ordonez was a freak last year, leading baseball with a .363 batting average. Yikes -- that's nasty. "Maggs" is an excellent run producer, as well. Because of the cavernous dimensions of Detroit's park, his homerun total leaves a bit to be desired, but he's still a top five to 10 outfielder. RBI and runs scored should increase with the additions of Miguel Cabrera and Edgar Renteria to an already potent Tigers' lineup.

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