A few days ago, I stumbled upon an interesting MLB forum entitled, "Who has the best starting rotation in the MLB?" The message board had a weird format where the person who wrote the initial question got to choose the "best" response from the ensuing answers. The person who suggested that the Tigers have the best rotation was selected as the victor.
My initial reaction was, "No f---in' way." I was mostly annoyed by the fact that they said the Tigers had "four legitimate No. 1 starters" in Justin Verlander, Jeremy Bonderman, Kenny Rogers and Dontrelle Willis. Verlander is the only true No. 1 in there. I don't know what they were thinking with Rogers and Willis; Bonderman has fallen off, as well.
Yet as irked as I was, after glancing over all the rotations, the person who picked the Tigers has a decent argument. They employed the wrong reasoning; Detroit's strength isn't that it has "four No.1's" -- its strength is that all five of its starters is at the very least, average. (The fifth starter being lefty Nate Robertson).
Yup, that's where Major League Baseball is at these days. Five average to slightly above average pitchers gives you one of the top rotations in either league. Yikes. Enjoy the feast, hitters.
Now do I think the Tigers actually boast the premier rotation in baseball? No. But they certainly make the top five-to-eight. It's difficult to rank the starting staffs this early in the season, because many integral arms are being placed on the 15-day DL for precautionary reasons; but as it stands right now, here's how I have it:
#1-Toronto Blue Jays: Roy Halladay, A.J. Burnett, Dustin McGowan, Shaun Marcum and Jesse Litsch.
I'm giving the Blue Jays the early nod because they have their entire 1-5 intact.
Here are the "ifs": if the Yankees had Joba Chamberlain in the rotation they could probably be No. 1; if the Red Sox had a healthy Curt Schilling they'd arguably be No. 1; if the Angels had both John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar they could certainly be atop the list; if the Mets had a game-ready Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez they might be the class of the league; and if the Diamondbacks had Randy Johnson prepared they could be in the running for the top spot.
What do all of those missing pitchers have in common? They leave a serious question mark behind in the No. 5 spot of their respective rotations. Now I'm not saying that Litsch is an incredible No. 5 starter, but he's the man the Jays finished 2007 with -- he's a young gun who throws strikes and keeps his team in the game. That's all anyone can ask from a No. 5 in today's MLB.
Halladay is still a legitimate No. 1, Burnett has mind-numbingly nasty stuff, McGowan emerged as one of the best young pitchers in the American League ast season, and Marcum joins Chien-Ming Wang, Fausto Carmona, and Jake Westbrook as one of the top sinkerballers in the AL.
You can see how this list is subject to change, because Burnett will likely suffer a serious injury at some point in the season. It's a yearly occurrence. But as of right now, he's healthy and the Blue Jays have a nice balance of youth, experience, depth and sheer talent.
#2-Seattle Mariners: Erik Bedard, Felix Hernandez, Jarrod Washburn, Miguel Batista and Carlos Silva.
Bedard hasn't been impressive this spring, but he unquestionably developed into one of the top left-handed pitchers in all of baseball last season. He features a live, low-to-mid 90s fastball, a little change-up and a sharp breaking ball. Logic insists that Bedard's numbers will only improve as he moves from Baltimore into the spacious confines of Safeco.
Hernandez undoubtedly has one of the top five arsenals -- along with Burnett, Josh Beckett, Chamberlain and either Verlander or Danny Haren. When I say arsenal, I basically mean "stuff." "King Felix" has an electric upper-90s fastball, a devastating splitter, good curve and a developing dive-change. Similarly to Burnett, the concerns with Hernandez are always health related.
Washburn and Batista are solid 3/4's that complement each other well. Washburn is a reliable lefty who isn't afraid to challenge hitters despite average stuff, and Batista is a battle-tested right-hander who relies heavily upon a hard cutter. Both are good for 10-15 wins.
Of course, the weakest link is Silva. Silva picked up a nice chunk of change from the Mariners this offseason, and he's thanked them by getting absolutely shelled this spring. Mariners' fans, I wouldn't be too worried...yet. Silva was a decent No. 3 for the Twins the past two years and he throws strikes, eats innings and has good sink on his two-seamer.
#3-Detroit Tigers: Justin Verlander, Kenny Rogers, Jeremy Bonderman, Dontrelle Willis and Nate Robertson.
Since this group has already been mentioned, I'm not going to go into too much detail. Bonderman and Rogers battled injuries last year and Willis is coming off the worst season of his career, but the friendly confines of Comerica Park should help them bounce back nicely. If Bonderman and Willis get off to extremely slow starts the Tigers won't remain on this list.
#4-New York Yankees: Chien-Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte, Phil Hughes, Mike Mussina and Ian Kennedy.
This one's probably a bit controversial, in large part because Hughes and Kennedy are entering their first full seasons as Major League starters. That could be a cause for concern to some, but Hughes and Kennedy have some of the best 3/5 potential in the Bigs. Hughes impressed with good stuff and surprisingly sharp command toward the end of 2007, and Kennedy will likely be one of the top 3-5 No. 5 starters in baseball.
Wang and Pettitte will be steady and pick up plenty of wins at the top of the rotation, as long as Pettitte can avoid aging quickly during the course of a single season. Injuries are a slight concern for him, as well. Mussina has looked fairly sharp this spring, and should be a respectable holdover until Chamberlain joins the rotation later on.
#5-New York Mets: Johan Santana, Pedro Martinez, John Maine, Oliver Perez and Jorge Sosa.
The Mets would probably have the elite staff if El Duque was in place of Sosa. Sosa was lights out as a No. 5 starter during the first half of the 2007 season, but he tapered off significantly and was eventually relegated to the bullpen.
Santana is probably still the top pitcher in baseball, Pedro is in tip-top condition by his shaky physical standards, and Maine and Perez are phenomenal 3/4 options. Both Maine and Perez won at least 14 games last year, as they anchored a Mets' rotation that lacked a dominant ace. Sure, Pedro's a question mark, but New York does have El Duque and hard-throwing youngster Mike Pelfrey waiting in the wings. It's tough to find three legitimate pitchers like Santana, Maine and Perez in a MLB staff nowadays.
Honorable Mention:
Boston Red Sox: Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jon Lester, Tim Wakefield and Clay Buchholz. (Schilling injured).
Cleveland Indians: C.C. Sabathia, Carmona, Jake Westbrook, Paul Byrd and Cliff Lee.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Brandon Webb, Haren, Doug Davis, Micah Owings and Edgar Gonzalez ("Big Unit" injured)
Chicago Cubs: Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Rich Hill, Jason Marquis and Ryan Dempster. Wild card = Jon Lieber.
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