A few days ago, I stumbled upon an interesting MLB forum entitled, "Who has the best starting rotation in the MLB?" The message board had a weird format where the person who wrote the initial question got to choose the "best" response from the ensuing answers. The person who suggested that the Tigers have the best rotation was selected as the victor.
My initial reaction was, "No f---in' way." I was mostly annoyed by the fact that they said the Tigers had "four legitimate No. 1 starters" in Justin Verlander, Jeremy Bonderman, Kenny Rogers and Dontrelle Willis. Verlander is the only true No. 1 in there. I don't know what they were thinking with Rogers and Willis; Bonderman has fallen off, as well.
Yet as irked as I was, after glancing over all the rotations, the person who picked the Tigers has a decent argument. They employed the wrong reasoning; Detroit's strength isn't that it has "four No.1's" -- its strength is that all five of its starters is at the very least, average. (The fifth starter being lefty Nate Robertson).
Yup, that's where Major League Baseball is at these days. Five average to slightly above average pitchers gives you one of the top rotations in either league. Yikes. Enjoy the feast, hitters.
Now do I think the Tigers actually boast the premier rotation in baseball? No. But they certainly make the top five-to-eight. It's difficult to rank the starting staffs this early in the season, because many integral arms are being placed on the 15-day DL for precautionary reasons; but as it stands right now, here's how I have it:
#1-Toronto Blue Jays: Roy Halladay, A.J. Burnett, Dustin McGowan, Shaun Marcum and Jesse Litsch.
I'm giving the Blue Jays the early nod because they have their entire 1-5 intact.
Here are the "ifs": if the Yankees had Joba Chamberlain in the rotation they could probably be No. 1; if the Red Sox had a healthy Curt Schilling they'd arguably be No. 1; if the Angels had both John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar they could certainly be atop the list; if the Mets had a game-ready Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez they might be the class of the league; and if the Diamondbacks had Randy Johnson prepared they could be in the running for the top spot.
What do all of those missing pitchers have in common? They leave a serious question mark behind in the No. 5 spot of their respective rotations. Now I'm not saying that Litsch is an incredible No. 5 starter, but he's the man the Jays finished 2007 with -- he's a young gun who throws strikes and keeps his team in the game. That's all anyone can ask from a No. 5 in today's MLB.
Halladay is still a legitimate No. 1, Burnett has mind-numbingly nasty stuff, McGowan emerged as one of the best young pitchers in the American League ast season, and Marcum joins Chien-Ming Wang, Fausto Carmona, and Jake Westbrook as one of the top sinkerballers in the AL.
You can see how this list is subject to change, because Burnett will likely suffer a serious injury at some point in the season. It's a yearly occurrence. But as of right now, he's healthy and the Blue Jays have a nice balance of youth, experience, depth and sheer talent.
#2-Seattle Mariners: Erik Bedard, Felix Hernandez, Jarrod Washburn, Miguel Batista and Carlos Silva.
Bedard hasn't been impressive this spring, but he unquestionably developed into one of the top left-handed pitchers in all of baseball last season. He features a live, low-to-mid 90s fastball, a little change-up and a sharp breaking ball. Logic insists that Bedard's numbers will only improve as he moves from Baltimore into the spacious confines of Safeco.
Hernandez undoubtedly has one of the top five arsenals -- along with Burnett, Josh Beckett, Chamberlain and either Verlander or Danny Haren. When I say arsenal, I basically mean "stuff." "King Felix" has an electric upper-90s fastball, a devastating splitter, good curve and a developing dive-change. Similarly to Burnett, the concerns with Hernandez are always health related.
Washburn and Batista are solid 3/4's that complement each other well. Washburn is a reliable lefty who isn't afraid to challenge hitters despite average stuff, and Batista is a battle-tested right-hander who relies heavily upon a hard cutter. Both are good for 10-15 wins.
Of course, the weakest link is Silva. Silva picked up a nice chunk of change from the Mariners this offseason, and he's thanked them by getting absolutely shelled this spring. Mariners' fans, I wouldn't be too worried...yet. Silva was a decent No. 3 for the Twins the past two years and he throws strikes, eats innings and has good sink on his two-seamer.
#3-Detroit Tigers: Justin Verlander, Kenny Rogers, Jeremy Bonderman, Dontrelle Willis and Nate Robertson.
Since this group has already been mentioned, I'm not going to go into too much detail. Bonderman and Rogers battled injuries last year and Willis is coming off the worst season of his career, but the friendly confines of Comerica Park should help them bounce back nicely. If Bonderman and Willis get off to extremely slow starts the Tigers won't remain on this list.
#4-New York Yankees: Chien-Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte, Phil Hughes, Mike Mussina and Ian Kennedy.
This one's probably a bit controversial, in large part because Hughes and Kennedy are entering their first full seasons as Major League starters. That could be a cause for concern to some, but Hughes and Kennedy have some of the best 3/5 potential in the Bigs. Hughes impressed with good stuff and surprisingly sharp command toward the end of 2007, and Kennedy will likely be one of the top 3-5 No. 5 starters in baseball.
Wang and Pettitte will be steady and pick up plenty of wins at the top of the rotation, as long as Pettitte can avoid aging quickly during the course of a single season. Injuries are a slight concern for him, as well. Mussina has looked fairly sharp this spring, and should be a respectable holdover until Chamberlain joins the rotation later on.
#5-New York Mets: Johan Santana, Pedro Martinez, John Maine, Oliver Perez and Jorge Sosa.
The Mets would probably have the elite staff if El Duque was in place of Sosa. Sosa was lights out as a No. 5 starter during the first half of the 2007 season, but he tapered off significantly and was eventually relegated to the bullpen.
Santana is probably still the top pitcher in baseball, Pedro is in tip-top condition by his shaky physical standards, and Maine and Perez are phenomenal 3/4 options. Both Maine and Perez won at least 14 games last year, as they anchored a Mets' rotation that lacked a dominant ace. Sure, Pedro's a question mark, but New York does have El Duque and hard-throwing youngster Mike Pelfrey waiting in the wings. It's tough to find three legitimate pitchers like Santana, Maine and Perez in a MLB staff nowadays.
Honorable Mention:
Boston Red Sox: Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jon Lester, Tim Wakefield and Clay Buchholz. (Schilling injured).
Cleveland Indians: C.C. Sabathia, Carmona, Jake Westbrook, Paul Byrd and Cliff Lee.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Brandon Webb, Haren, Doug Davis, Micah Owings and Edgar Gonzalez ("Big Unit" injured)
Chicago Cubs: Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Rich Hill, Jason Marquis and Ryan Dempster. Wild card = Jon Lieber.
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Saturday, March 22, 2008
Fire Lawrence Frank! Now!
I can't believe that Lawrence Frank still has a job with the New Jersey Nets. We can add tonight's four-point loss in Philadelphia to the "if I was coaching the Nets we would have won" category. Let's get to the specifics:
The Nets were trailing by seven at halftime, only to go on a furious third-quarter run that turned the tides and gave them an eight point lead. Credit the run's success to Vince Carter, Devin Harris, Boki Nachbar and Josh Boone. So, shortly after the Nets' lead extends to eight and the Sixers call a timeout, Frank takes out Harris, Nachbar and Boone...
Enter Marcus Williams, Richard Jefferson and Trenton Hassell. Yes, Trenton Hassell. And if you're wondering, yes...he did airball his first and only shot attempt of the evening. Not a joke. Williams proceeded to commit two crucial turnovers and Jefferson struggled to get going all night.
I blinked, and we were behind in the early stages of the fourth quarter. I know NBA guys need their rest, but this was the biggest game of the season for the Nets and Frank failed to ride the rush. Should have left VC, Harris, Boki and Boone out there until their play indicated fatigue or the Sixers began to turn it around on the scoreboard.
Neither was the case when Frank made his costly substitutions.
Frank's decision-making was equally as horrible or worse in the fourth. He overplayed the physically ailing Nenad Krstic, who allowed Samuel Dalembert to rip down 18 rebounds, including four or five critical bounds in the final three minutes. Krstic is far from athletic, and throw in a pair of bad knees -- how the hell is he supposed to stay with the younger, longer, quicker, more explosive Dalembert?
Krstic had no shot. Frank had two athletic options on the bench -- rookie Sean Williams and the enigmatic Stromile Swift -- but he failed to pull the trigger and play the match-up. Instead he left Krstic out there to rot and when Carter missed a potential game-tying three in the final 25 seconds, Krstic got outjumped by Dalembert (what a surprise) and was unable to snatch a rebound that should have been his.
Cue the annoying timeouts. A Frank trademark. This is the NBA!!! Coach, you have Carter and Jefferson, these guys can close games without one of your terrible set plays that never work. He calls a timeout for every possession in the final 1:30! The frustration on the faces of his players is as clear as the fact that he shouldn't be coaching in the NBA. Take a lesson from Phil Jackson -- the guy lets his players go, and they deliver for him.
Sure, Carter isn't Michael or Kobe, but he does have four game-winners this season. Put it in his hands, let him win the game for you -- Frank's diagrammed plays don't work anyway. Jefferson has a few game-winners too.
I can't even write about Lawrence Frank anymore. I get too frustrated even thinking about him and the way the Nets are playing this season. He coaches pros like they're a bunch of middle schoolers and he's a shell of the man he replaced -- the successful Byron Scott.
If the Nets miss the playoffs and Frank keeps his job...I'm becoming a T'Wolves fan.
The Nets were trailing by seven at halftime, only to go on a furious third-quarter run that turned the tides and gave them an eight point lead. Credit the run's success to Vince Carter, Devin Harris, Boki Nachbar and Josh Boone. So, shortly after the Nets' lead extends to eight and the Sixers call a timeout, Frank takes out Harris, Nachbar and Boone...
Enter Marcus Williams, Richard Jefferson and Trenton Hassell. Yes, Trenton Hassell. And if you're wondering, yes...he did airball his first and only shot attempt of the evening. Not a joke. Williams proceeded to commit two crucial turnovers and Jefferson struggled to get going all night.
I blinked, and we were behind in the early stages of the fourth quarter. I know NBA guys need their rest, but this was the biggest game of the season for the Nets and Frank failed to ride the rush. Should have left VC, Harris, Boki and Boone out there until their play indicated fatigue or the Sixers began to turn it around on the scoreboard.
Neither was the case when Frank made his costly substitutions.
Frank's decision-making was equally as horrible or worse in the fourth. He overplayed the physically ailing Nenad Krstic, who allowed Samuel Dalembert to rip down 18 rebounds, including four or five critical bounds in the final three minutes. Krstic is far from athletic, and throw in a pair of bad knees -- how the hell is he supposed to stay with the younger, longer, quicker, more explosive Dalembert?
Krstic had no shot. Frank had two athletic options on the bench -- rookie Sean Williams and the enigmatic Stromile Swift -- but he failed to pull the trigger and play the match-up. Instead he left Krstic out there to rot and when Carter missed a potential game-tying three in the final 25 seconds, Krstic got outjumped by Dalembert (what a surprise) and was unable to snatch a rebound that should have been his.
Cue the annoying timeouts. A Frank trademark. This is the NBA!!! Coach, you have Carter and Jefferson, these guys can close games without one of your terrible set plays that never work. He calls a timeout for every possession in the final 1:30! The frustration on the faces of his players is as clear as the fact that he shouldn't be coaching in the NBA. Take a lesson from Phil Jackson -- the guy lets his players go, and they deliver for him.
Sure, Carter isn't Michael or Kobe, but he does have four game-winners this season. Put it in his hands, let him win the game for you -- Frank's diagrammed plays don't work anyway. Jefferson has a few game-winners too.
I can't even write about Lawrence Frank anymore. I get too frustrated even thinking about him and the way the Nets are playing this season. He coaches pros like they're a bunch of middle schoolers and he's a shell of the man he replaced -- the successful Byron Scott.
If the Nets miss the playoffs and Frank keeps his job...I'm becoming a T'Wolves fan.
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
The Celtics Make a Statement in Houston
The Celtics snapped the Rockets' improbable 22-game winning streak tonight with a dominant performance in Houston. The game was tied at 40 at the half, but in the second half, the better team took command behind their superstars -- Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce -- and a hungry, young bench player in Leon Powe.
There is absolutely no doubt that the Celtics are a better team than the Rockets. The Celtics were without one of the Big Three (Ray Allen) and they still managed to blow Houston out on its home court, in what was a playoff-like atmosphere. The Rockets are still atop the Western Conference standings with the loss, but they won't maintain a stranglehold on the No. 1 spot. They play cohesively, and with passion and intensity, but they can only ride guys like Mike Harris, Bobby Jackson and Chuck Hayes for so long. Sooner or later the lack of exceptional talent will burn them in the firepit that is the Wild West.
It's difficult to say for sure, but the Celtics may very well be the premier team in the NBA. They have an impressive record against tough Western Conference competition and they won the season series against the Eastern powerhouse Pistons.
Garnett is a pleasure to watch, as he controls the tempo of the game at both ends of the floor. He's active and aggressive on the defensive end and he plays with poise and intellect offensively. He probably has a slight edge over Tim Duncan as the top power forward in the league right now.
I still believe, if healthy, that the Lakers are the team to beat. However, with both Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol out now, the "if" in "if healthy" is a massive "if." A big enough "if" for me to place them slightly behind the Celtics in the overall power rankings. The Lakers have no paint presence without Bynum and Gasol (Chris Mihm is also out) and the Rockets were clearly the better team when they beat L.A. on Sunday.
Meanwhile, the Hornets are trying to make a believer out of me, but I just can't see them as a legitimate title contender. They are totally reliant on Chris Paul at the end of games and when it comes down to it, I prefer other team's closers like Kobe Bryant and Baron Davis. Paul has certainly proven himself this regular season, but I'm not sold on his dominance continuing in the playoffs. He's small and has a low release, and I could see bigger defenders hounding him down the stretch of playoff games. Paul's just not a natural one-on-one, go-to type player like Kobe, LeBron, Baron or even Tracy McGrady.
I like Utah's team but they still lack an identity in close fourth quarter situations. Some nights its Mehmet Okur taking long, contested twos or Kyle Korver jacking up threes. What it should be is Deron Williams clearing out at the top of the key and Carlos Boozer coming up for the pick-and-roll. Every time. Let your best two players determine the outcome of a close one. C'mon Jerry Sloan, Stockton and Malone should be your blueprint.
Power Rankings, if healthy (Yao exempted because he's officially out for the season):
1-Lakers, 2-Celtics, 3-Spurs, 4-Pistons, 5-Jazz, 6-Suns, 7-Hornets, 8-Rockets, 9-Warriors, 10-Mavericks
Power Rankings, right now:
1-Celtics, 2-Pistons, 3-Jazz, 4-Rockets, 5-Hornets, 6-Spurs, 7-Lakers, 8-Suns, 9-Warriors, 10-Mavericks
The Celtics-Lakers rivalry could make a triumphant return in this year's NBA Finals. Injuries will make all the difference in the world.
There is absolutely no doubt that the Celtics are a better team than the Rockets. The Celtics were without one of the Big Three (Ray Allen) and they still managed to blow Houston out on its home court, in what was a playoff-like atmosphere. The Rockets are still atop the Western Conference standings with the loss, but they won't maintain a stranglehold on the No. 1 spot. They play cohesively, and with passion and intensity, but they can only ride guys like Mike Harris, Bobby Jackson and Chuck Hayes for so long. Sooner or later the lack of exceptional talent will burn them in the firepit that is the Wild West.
It's difficult to say for sure, but the Celtics may very well be the premier team in the NBA. They have an impressive record against tough Western Conference competition and they won the season series against the Eastern powerhouse Pistons.
Garnett is a pleasure to watch, as he controls the tempo of the game at both ends of the floor. He's active and aggressive on the defensive end and he plays with poise and intellect offensively. He probably has a slight edge over Tim Duncan as the top power forward in the league right now.
I still believe, if healthy, that the Lakers are the team to beat. However, with both Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol out now, the "if" in "if healthy" is a massive "if." A big enough "if" for me to place them slightly behind the Celtics in the overall power rankings. The Lakers have no paint presence without Bynum and Gasol (Chris Mihm is also out) and the Rockets were clearly the better team when they beat L.A. on Sunday.
Meanwhile, the Hornets are trying to make a believer out of me, but I just can't see them as a legitimate title contender. They are totally reliant on Chris Paul at the end of games and when it comes down to it, I prefer other team's closers like Kobe Bryant and Baron Davis. Paul has certainly proven himself this regular season, but I'm not sold on his dominance continuing in the playoffs. He's small and has a low release, and I could see bigger defenders hounding him down the stretch of playoff games. Paul's just not a natural one-on-one, go-to type player like Kobe, LeBron, Baron or even Tracy McGrady.
I like Utah's team but they still lack an identity in close fourth quarter situations. Some nights its Mehmet Okur taking long, contested twos or Kyle Korver jacking up threes. What it should be is Deron Williams clearing out at the top of the key and Carlos Boozer coming up for the pick-and-roll. Every time. Let your best two players determine the outcome of a close one. C'mon Jerry Sloan, Stockton and Malone should be your blueprint.
Power Rankings, if healthy (Yao exempted because he's officially out for the season):
1-Lakers, 2-Celtics, 3-Spurs, 4-Pistons, 5-Jazz, 6-Suns, 7-Hornets, 8-Rockets, 9-Warriors, 10-Mavericks
Power Rankings, right now:
1-Celtics, 2-Pistons, 3-Jazz, 4-Rockets, 5-Hornets, 6-Spurs, 7-Lakers, 8-Suns, 9-Warriors, 10-Mavericks
The Celtics-Lakers rivalry could make a triumphant return in this year's NBA Finals. Injuries will make all the difference in the world.
Fantasy Baseball Advice: Second Edition
In volume two, I'll take a look at the deep list of outfielders. Selecting outfielders can get tricky because the range of individual strengths is wider at this position than any other. Meaning, first basemen are generally slow-footed run producers, second basemen are usually smaller guys who hit for average and score runs -- yet outfielders can be monster homerun hitters or speedy little steals specialists.
I think the Rockies' Matt Holliday is a runaway for the No. 1 spot in the outfield. He has no weaknesses -- he hits homers, drives in a ton of runs, scores runs, hits for average, plays in a hitters' ballpark, and even gets his share of steals. He's young and durable, and he should be a fantasy animal again this year.
Spots two through seven are highly interchangeable. I like Carlos Beltran for the No. 2 spot because he managed to hit 33 homers and drive in 112 runs last year despite missing a significant number of games. For that very same reason, some people may not like Beltran. He's a bit injury prone, and although his offseason knee surgery went extremely well, some will be rightfully skeptical of his durability. I don't think Beltran will miss more than 20 games overall, and the Mets need him more than ever with Carlos Delgado on the downside of his career.
Others to consider from two to seven are Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Lee, Grady Sizemore, Magglio Ordonez and Carl Crawford.
Like Ryan Howard, Soriano struggled mightily during the first half of the 2007 season, but he settled in during part two -- particularly in the last month and a half. Soriano is always a source of homeruns and steals, but his RBI total will depend on his position in Sweet Lou's batting order. The latest reports say he has Soriano penciled in for the No. 2 position -- like the one-spot, it won't allow for exceptional run production.
Lee is one of the premier RBI guys in the Majors, and he'll likely enjoy the company of Miguel Tejada this season. Tejada will provide protection for "El Caballo," as will Lance Berkman, Hunter Pence and perhaps even Ty Wigginton. El Caballo should be set for a monster year and I expect him to take more advantage of the Astros' short porch in left. Homers should jump from low 30s to 38-42. 150 RBI isn't an impossibility.
Sizemore's batting average dipped during the regular season last year, but he impressed in the playoffs. Reports are that he is tearing it up this spring, and I have to believe he'll be closer to .300 this season. Sizemore will certainly be among the leaders in runs scored and extra-base hits, and unlike Crawford, he's a "speed guy" who definitely deserves to be considered with this group of top outfielders.
Crawford's obviously a different story. Yahoo Sports actually had a decent column a couple of weeks back about the unwarranted fantasy hype that accompanies Crawford. They had it right. He's solid -- he's a top steals and triples guy -- but he's not a first or second round pick in an average-sized fantasy draft. He lacks the homerun pop of Sizemore or even Curtis Granderson, and the Rays have an unproven lineup that could shrink his runs scored total. There's little to differentiate Crawford from the Rockies' Willy Taveras, who generally goes in the middle-to-late rounds.
Ordonez was a freak last year, leading baseball with a .363 batting average. Yikes -- that's nasty. "Maggs" is an excellent run producer, as well. Because of the cavernous dimensions of Detroit's park, his homerun total leaves a bit to be desired, but he's still a top five to 10 outfielder. RBI and runs scored should increase with the additions of Miguel Cabrera and Edgar Renteria to an already potent Tigers' lineup.
I think the Rockies' Matt Holliday is a runaway for the No. 1 spot in the outfield. He has no weaknesses -- he hits homers, drives in a ton of runs, scores runs, hits for average, plays in a hitters' ballpark, and even gets his share of steals. He's young and durable, and he should be a fantasy animal again this year.
Spots two through seven are highly interchangeable. I like Carlos Beltran for the No. 2 spot because he managed to hit 33 homers and drive in 112 runs last year despite missing a significant number of games. For that very same reason, some people may not like Beltran. He's a bit injury prone, and although his offseason knee surgery went extremely well, some will be rightfully skeptical of his durability. I don't think Beltran will miss more than 20 games overall, and the Mets need him more than ever with Carlos Delgado on the downside of his career.
Others to consider from two to seven are Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Lee, Grady Sizemore, Magglio Ordonez and Carl Crawford.
Like Ryan Howard, Soriano struggled mightily during the first half of the 2007 season, but he settled in during part two -- particularly in the last month and a half. Soriano is always a source of homeruns and steals, but his RBI total will depend on his position in Sweet Lou's batting order. The latest reports say he has Soriano penciled in for the No. 2 position -- like the one-spot, it won't allow for exceptional run production.
Lee is one of the premier RBI guys in the Majors, and he'll likely enjoy the company of Miguel Tejada this season. Tejada will provide protection for "El Caballo," as will Lance Berkman, Hunter Pence and perhaps even Ty Wigginton. El Caballo should be set for a monster year and I expect him to take more advantage of the Astros' short porch in left. Homers should jump from low 30s to 38-42. 150 RBI isn't an impossibility.
Sizemore's batting average dipped during the regular season last year, but he impressed in the playoffs. Reports are that he is tearing it up this spring, and I have to believe he'll be closer to .300 this season. Sizemore will certainly be among the leaders in runs scored and extra-base hits, and unlike Crawford, he's a "speed guy" who definitely deserves to be considered with this group of top outfielders.
Crawford's obviously a different story. Yahoo Sports actually had a decent column a couple of weeks back about the unwarranted fantasy hype that accompanies Crawford. They had it right. He's solid -- he's a top steals and triples guy -- but he's not a first or second round pick in an average-sized fantasy draft. He lacks the homerun pop of Sizemore or even Curtis Granderson, and the Rays have an unproven lineup that could shrink his runs scored total. There's little to differentiate Crawford from the Rockies' Willy Taveras, who generally goes in the middle-to-late rounds.
Ordonez was a freak last year, leading baseball with a .363 batting average. Yikes -- that's nasty. "Maggs" is an excellent run producer, as well. Because of the cavernous dimensions of Detroit's park, his homerun total leaves a bit to be desired, but he's still a top five to 10 outfielder. RBI and runs scored should increase with the additions of Miguel Cabrera and Edgar Renteria to an already potent Tigers' lineup.
Saturday, March 15, 2008
Fantasy Baseball Advice: Volume 1
I know this blog has been devoted entirely to basketball up to this point, but I have a big fantasy baseball draft Monday night. I figured I'd sift through my pre-rankings and provide some advice to my fellow cyber managers. In this volume, I'll focus on infielders.
At catcher, Cubs' youngster Geovany Soto is getting plenty of hype in the fantasy community. I don't know what to think of the kid -- he performed well in a short-term scenario last season, but I don't think he's a sure thing like Russell Martin was last year. I stole Martin in the 21st round of my deep draft last season, because he had already shown his versatility in the form of stolen bases, and the Dodgers' organization kept suggesting that he was their second-half MVP in 2006. Soto didn't have anywhere near that type of impact in 2007. He did well, but I won't be looking to steal him from anyone.
Pre-ranking: 11th catcher. In the vicinity of Ramon Hernandez and Jason Varitek.
Texas' Jarrod Saltalamacchia is another interesting young catcher. "Salty" got hot for the Braves before being dealt to the Rangers last season, and managed to do fairly well with Texas. I like his size and power, the Rangers have an excellent hitters' park, and Salty's also eligible at first base. However, my research tells me that Gerald Laird is going to be Texas' everyday catcher, and lefty Ben Broussard has the job at first. So Salty may very well begin the year in the minors. I think he'll find his way up a few times, though. He's a wild card.
Pre-ranking: bottom of the catchers' list. Could have value later on in the season.
At first base, there's been much debate about the top of the list. It's basically a three-man race: Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder. I've already revealed my hand -- that's the order I have them in.
Pujols is one of the greatest hitters of all time, and even though his lineup protection is limited this season, he'll find a way to hit 35-40 homers and drive in 110-120 runs with a batting average over .300.
Howard got off to an extremely slow start last season, but he tore the cover off the ball in the second half. I believe his second half performance is more indicative of the year he's going to have this season, as the big fella will continue to take advantage of the friendly confines in Philly.
For some reason, I'm a little skeptical about Fielder. Honestly, I think it's his weight that concerns me, because it definitely isn't his swing. Fielder is clearly smoother than Pujols mechanically, and he's better technically than Howard. He hits to all fields and may compliment his power numbers with a .300 average for many years to come.
A couple of other first basemen to watch are the Dodgers' James Loney and the Pirates' Adam LaRoche. Loney has a sweet lefty stroke and he's extremely calm and poised for such a young hitter. Like Fielder, he hits the ball to all fields, and while he doesn't explode with the same regularity, Loney is a capable long-ball hitter. Pre-ranking: 13th first baseman. Around Adrian Gonzalez and Todd Helton.
LaRoche is one of those guys who just looks like a monster at the plate. He's tall, relaxed, has an extremely long swing and a load of homerun power. He's a bit of a free swinger and he strikes out at a pretty high rate, but in his second season in Pittsburgh I expect him to be more settled and accustomed to the offensive backdrop. Pre-ranking: 16th first baseman. In the area of Kevin Youkilis and Carlos Delgado.
At second base, it's mostly a toss-up. There's no question that Chase Utley, Brandon Phillips and B.J. Upton are the class of the position, while Robinson Cano, Brian Roberts, Chone Figgins and Dan Uggla round out the extended group of elites. In the teens, Dustin Pedroia, Kelly Johnson, Placido Polanco and Howie Kendrick can really go in any order -- depends on the roster needs at that particular juncture in your draft.
Toward the bottom of the list two youngsters to keep an eye on are the Indians' Asdrubal Cabrera and the Rockies' Jayson Nix. Both could be reasonable late-round picks, however I don't see either having an incredible influence on this fantasy season.
At third base, I think the Reds' Edwin Encarnacion is the player with the most upside in the teens. I love the Reds' ballpark for fantasy hitters and Encarnacion's confidence should be high after a comeback second half last year. However, the issue still remains with Ryan Freel rotating in from center field to play some third base. The Reds have some big-time prospects they may wanna work in in the outfield and they'll still want to sneak Freel's speed into the lineup. But if Encarnacion gets steady playing time I'd say 25 homers and 90 RBI at least.
Pre-ranking: 12th third baseman. Around Hank Blalock.
The Twins' Mike Lamb is a deep sleeper at third base. Lamb has been an excellent part-time hitter for the Astros in recent years, and it seems as if he's finally getting the opportunity to start. I don't know if he'll produce against lefties, but he should hit right around .300 against right-handers. I could see 15-20 homers and 75-85 RBI.
Pre-ranking: 23rd third baseman. In the vicinity of Scott Rolen and Nomar Garciaparra. (Haha, look at those two names. Five years ago they were both top five at their position. Times change.)
At shortstop, I'm not sold on sophomore Troy Tulowitzki. I know Coors Field makes him a very enticing pick, but I watched the playoffs very closely last year and "Tulo" showed me almost nothing at the plate. Granted, the regular season pitching will be easier to tee off on. I still have him in my top 10 shortstops, I just don't think he's a top 5 guy like most fantasy magazines and websites are projecting. I'd take Carlos Guillen or Miguel Tejada before him.
Pre-ranking: 7th shortstop. Near Guillen and Edgar Renteria.
Don't take the bait on J.J. Hardy, either. J.J. had an incredible first half last year and was a legitimate NL MVP candidate at the midway point. He quickly came back to earth in the second half and looked like the .240 hitter he had been in the past. I don't think he's a total dud, I'm merely saying I'd go with safer selections like Rafael Furcal and Orlando Cabrera.
Pre-ranking: 12th shortstop. Around Cabrera and Stephen Drew.
Speaking of Stephen Drew, he's a guy who people were in love with prior to the 2007 campaign. His regular season numbers were extremely disappointing, but I think he came into his own in the playoffs. Drew features a pretty left-handed swing and is an excellent gap hitter. He's not quite as strong as his brother J.D., but I think Stephen is in for his first impressive regular season. Strengths should be total bases and runs scored.
At catcher, Cubs' youngster Geovany Soto is getting plenty of hype in the fantasy community. I don't know what to think of the kid -- he performed well in a short-term scenario last season, but I don't think he's a sure thing like Russell Martin was last year. I stole Martin in the 21st round of my deep draft last season, because he had already shown his versatility in the form of stolen bases, and the Dodgers' organization kept suggesting that he was their second-half MVP in 2006. Soto didn't have anywhere near that type of impact in 2007. He did well, but I won't be looking to steal him from anyone.
Pre-ranking: 11th catcher. In the vicinity of Ramon Hernandez and Jason Varitek.
Texas' Jarrod Saltalamacchia is another interesting young catcher. "Salty" got hot for the Braves before being dealt to the Rangers last season, and managed to do fairly well with Texas. I like his size and power, the Rangers have an excellent hitters' park, and Salty's also eligible at first base. However, my research tells me that Gerald Laird is going to be Texas' everyday catcher, and lefty Ben Broussard has the job at first. So Salty may very well begin the year in the minors. I think he'll find his way up a few times, though. He's a wild card.
Pre-ranking: bottom of the catchers' list. Could have value later on in the season.
At first base, there's been much debate about the top of the list. It's basically a three-man race: Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder. I've already revealed my hand -- that's the order I have them in.
Pujols is one of the greatest hitters of all time, and even though his lineup protection is limited this season, he'll find a way to hit 35-40 homers and drive in 110-120 runs with a batting average over .300.
Howard got off to an extremely slow start last season, but he tore the cover off the ball in the second half. I believe his second half performance is more indicative of the year he's going to have this season, as the big fella will continue to take advantage of the friendly confines in Philly.
For some reason, I'm a little skeptical about Fielder. Honestly, I think it's his weight that concerns me, because it definitely isn't his swing. Fielder is clearly smoother than Pujols mechanically, and he's better technically than Howard. He hits to all fields and may compliment his power numbers with a .300 average for many years to come.
A couple of other first basemen to watch are the Dodgers' James Loney and the Pirates' Adam LaRoche. Loney has a sweet lefty stroke and he's extremely calm and poised for such a young hitter. Like Fielder, he hits the ball to all fields, and while he doesn't explode with the same regularity, Loney is a capable long-ball hitter. Pre-ranking: 13th first baseman. Around Adrian Gonzalez and Todd Helton.
LaRoche is one of those guys who just looks like a monster at the plate. He's tall, relaxed, has an extremely long swing and a load of homerun power. He's a bit of a free swinger and he strikes out at a pretty high rate, but in his second season in Pittsburgh I expect him to be more settled and accustomed to the offensive backdrop. Pre-ranking: 16th first baseman. In the area of Kevin Youkilis and Carlos Delgado.
At second base, it's mostly a toss-up. There's no question that Chase Utley, Brandon Phillips and B.J. Upton are the class of the position, while Robinson Cano, Brian Roberts, Chone Figgins and Dan Uggla round out the extended group of elites. In the teens, Dustin Pedroia, Kelly Johnson, Placido Polanco and Howie Kendrick can really go in any order -- depends on the roster needs at that particular juncture in your draft.
Toward the bottom of the list two youngsters to keep an eye on are the Indians' Asdrubal Cabrera and the Rockies' Jayson Nix. Both could be reasonable late-round picks, however I don't see either having an incredible influence on this fantasy season.
At third base, I think the Reds' Edwin Encarnacion is the player with the most upside in the teens. I love the Reds' ballpark for fantasy hitters and Encarnacion's confidence should be high after a comeback second half last year. However, the issue still remains with Ryan Freel rotating in from center field to play some third base. The Reds have some big-time prospects they may wanna work in in the outfield and they'll still want to sneak Freel's speed into the lineup. But if Encarnacion gets steady playing time I'd say 25 homers and 90 RBI at least.
Pre-ranking: 12th third baseman. Around Hank Blalock.
The Twins' Mike Lamb is a deep sleeper at third base. Lamb has been an excellent part-time hitter for the Astros in recent years, and it seems as if he's finally getting the opportunity to start. I don't know if he'll produce against lefties, but he should hit right around .300 against right-handers. I could see 15-20 homers and 75-85 RBI.
Pre-ranking: 23rd third baseman. In the vicinity of Scott Rolen and Nomar Garciaparra. (Haha, look at those two names. Five years ago they were both top five at their position. Times change.)
At shortstop, I'm not sold on sophomore Troy Tulowitzki. I know Coors Field makes him a very enticing pick, but I watched the playoffs very closely last year and "Tulo" showed me almost nothing at the plate. Granted, the regular season pitching will be easier to tee off on. I still have him in my top 10 shortstops, I just don't think he's a top 5 guy like most fantasy magazines and websites are projecting. I'd take Carlos Guillen or Miguel Tejada before him.
Pre-ranking: 7th shortstop. Near Guillen and Edgar Renteria.
Don't take the bait on J.J. Hardy, either. J.J. had an incredible first half last year and was a legitimate NL MVP candidate at the midway point. He quickly came back to earth in the second half and looked like the .240 hitter he had been in the past. I don't think he's a total dud, I'm merely saying I'd go with safer selections like Rafael Furcal and Orlando Cabrera.
Pre-ranking: 12th shortstop. Around Cabrera and Stephen Drew.
Speaking of Stephen Drew, he's a guy who people were in love with prior to the 2007 campaign. His regular season numbers were extremely disappointing, but I think he came into his own in the playoffs. Drew features a pretty left-handed swing and is an excellent gap hitter. He's not quite as strong as his brother J.D., but I think Stephen is in for his first impressive regular season. Strengths should be total bases and runs scored.
Friday, March 14, 2008
Cavs Regretting the Ben Wallace Trade?
We can't know for sure if the Cavs' organization is regretting the trade that brought them Ben Wallace and friends, but one thing's pretty clear: LeBron is pissed.
I watched two of Cleveland's losses this week (New Jersey, Washington) and I could feel the tension in LeBron's play. He spent the entire first quarter of the New Jersey game trying to pump up his lethargic teammates, and spent the whole Washington game jarring with DeShawn Stevenson and playing sloppy one-on-one. King James is in a tough spot right now because his new teammates are underachieving, and even with a monster individual performance -- 42 points, 11 rebounds, seven assists -- he was unable to lead his team to victory against a sub-par Nets team.
Let's look closer at his "new teammates":
1. Wallace-the headliner of the trade has already missed a few games due to injury. When he has appeared, his numbers have been OK, but he looks a step slow and doesn't have that contagious bounce in his step. Big Ben makes his share of ugly-looking shots around the rim that probably shouldn't go in, but he's still a major liability at the foul line -- particularly in late-game situations.
2. Wally Szczerbiak-certainly the second-biggest name in the deal, Wally has been absolutely horrific from the perimeter since joining the Cavs. He shot a very solid 46 percent from the floor with Seattle, and yet he's somehow shooting a measly 33 percent with Cleveland. Perhaps I shouldn't say "somehow," because there appear to be some serious deficiencies in Wally's game. Almost every time he attempts a three from a corner, whether it be right or left, he clangs it off the short side of the rim and the backboard. This type of miss comes from a rushed shot in which Wally fails to set his feet and square-up sufficiently. He's probably feeling the pressure of playing with the most-hyped athlete in the universe.
Also, Wally's knees seem to be bothering him and he looks out of shape. I'm sure all of the time off due to injuries limits his ability to maintain the proper playing weight. Regardless, LeBron is definitely missing Daniel Gibson, who (prior to his ankle injury) was making all of the open shots that Wally is missing.
3. Delonte West-I believe he's been starting at point guard for Cleveland since his first game on the active roster, but he's not doing much. Delonte basically just brings the ball over halfcourt and then dumps it off to LeBron so he can run the offense or take it to the rack and tear the rim down. Delonte's an OK defender, but he has a lean frame and bigger point guards will manhandle him. Since West's arrival, I actually think Damon Jones has outplayed him. Jones has been lighting it up from beyond the arc and he uses the threat of the three-ball to open up passing lanes to cutting teammates (which basically means LeBron cutting to the hoop).
4. Joe Smith-the man who I thought would be the biggest help to the Cavs, really hasn't contributed much. He hasn't shown the same confidence in his game that he was showing in Chicago, and maybe that's because LeBron is so good that it makes him feel talentless in comparison. No, I don't really believe that -- but it would be sad if true. I have to admit, LeBron hasn't been looking to get his teammates involved as much as he was earlier in the season, so that may be stunting Smith's output as well.
Of course the Cavs are also suffering through injuries. What the hell are they gonna do about the rotation when Gibson and Zydrunas Ilgauskas return? It's pretty sad, but I don't think any of the four players who came over from the Bulls deserve a spot in Cleveland's primary starting lineup. I'd go with:
PG-D.Jones, SG-Gibson, SF-LeBron, PF-Varejao, C-Ilgauskas.
They'd never do that though, because then they'd look quite stupid for giving away Drew Gooden (who has been a beast for the Bulls) and Larry Hughes. So, Mike Brown will probably go with:
PG-Delonte, SG-Sasha Pavlovic, SF-LeBron, PF-Big Ben, C-Ilgauskas.
That lineup makes me gag. But there is too much pride in the world of professional sports, Brown wouldn't want to hurt GM Danny Ferry's feelings by benching all of the players he just brought in, and playing guys who were already there. If I were calling the shots I'd say to hell with that -- let's play the guys who have earned the minutes. That's Damon Jones, Varejao and lately, swingman Devin Brown.
All I can say to the Cavs' organization is -- good luck cleaning up the mess you made.
I watched two of Cleveland's losses this week (New Jersey, Washington) and I could feel the tension in LeBron's play. He spent the entire first quarter of the New Jersey game trying to pump up his lethargic teammates, and spent the whole Washington game jarring with DeShawn Stevenson and playing sloppy one-on-one. King James is in a tough spot right now because his new teammates are underachieving, and even with a monster individual performance -- 42 points, 11 rebounds, seven assists -- he was unable to lead his team to victory against a sub-par Nets team.
Let's look closer at his "new teammates":
1. Wallace-the headliner of the trade has already missed a few games due to injury. When he has appeared, his numbers have been OK, but he looks a step slow and doesn't have that contagious bounce in his step. Big Ben makes his share of ugly-looking shots around the rim that probably shouldn't go in, but he's still a major liability at the foul line -- particularly in late-game situations.
2. Wally Szczerbiak-certainly the second-biggest name in the deal, Wally has been absolutely horrific from the perimeter since joining the Cavs. He shot a very solid 46 percent from the floor with Seattle, and yet he's somehow shooting a measly 33 percent with Cleveland. Perhaps I shouldn't say "somehow," because there appear to be some serious deficiencies in Wally's game. Almost every time he attempts a three from a corner, whether it be right or left, he clangs it off the short side of the rim and the backboard. This type of miss comes from a rushed shot in which Wally fails to set his feet and square-up sufficiently. He's probably feeling the pressure of playing with the most-hyped athlete in the universe.
Also, Wally's knees seem to be bothering him and he looks out of shape. I'm sure all of the time off due to injuries limits his ability to maintain the proper playing weight. Regardless, LeBron is definitely missing Daniel Gibson, who (prior to his ankle injury) was making all of the open shots that Wally is missing.
3. Delonte West-I believe he's been starting at point guard for Cleveland since his first game on the active roster, but he's not doing much. Delonte basically just brings the ball over halfcourt and then dumps it off to LeBron so he can run the offense or take it to the rack and tear the rim down. Delonte's an OK defender, but he has a lean frame and bigger point guards will manhandle him. Since West's arrival, I actually think Damon Jones has outplayed him. Jones has been lighting it up from beyond the arc and he uses the threat of the three-ball to open up passing lanes to cutting teammates (which basically means LeBron cutting to the hoop).
4. Joe Smith-the man who I thought would be the biggest help to the Cavs, really hasn't contributed much. He hasn't shown the same confidence in his game that he was showing in Chicago, and maybe that's because LeBron is so good that it makes him feel talentless in comparison. No, I don't really believe that -- but it would be sad if true. I have to admit, LeBron hasn't been looking to get his teammates involved as much as he was earlier in the season, so that may be stunting Smith's output as well.
Of course the Cavs are also suffering through injuries. What the hell are they gonna do about the rotation when Gibson and Zydrunas Ilgauskas return? It's pretty sad, but I don't think any of the four players who came over from the Bulls deserve a spot in Cleveland's primary starting lineup. I'd go with:
PG-D.Jones, SG-Gibson, SF-LeBron, PF-Varejao, C-Ilgauskas.
They'd never do that though, because then they'd look quite stupid for giving away Drew Gooden (who has been a beast for the Bulls) and Larry Hughes. So, Mike Brown will probably go with:
PG-Delonte, SG-Sasha Pavlovic, SF-LeBron, PF-Big Ben, C-Ilgauskas.
That lineup makes me gag. But there is too much pride in the world of professional sports, Brown wouldn't want to hurt GM Danny Ferry's feelings by benching all of the players he just brought in, and playing guys who were already there. If I were calling the shots I'd say to hell with that -- let's play the guys who have earned the minutes. That's Damon Jones, Varejao and lately, swingman Devin Brown.
All I can say to the Cavs' organization is -- good luck cleaning up the mess you made.
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
"Rocket"ing Into Contention
Very few of the Houston Rockets' 19 consecutive wins have been on national television, and I was finally able to catch them in action against the New Jersey Nets two nights ago. As far as overall talent goes (without Yao Ming), it's difficult not to be underwhelmed by the Rockets. However, their performance and results have been more than impressive -- it's absolutely incredible that this group has won 19 games in a row as a member of the loaded Western Conference.
While most people want to give a majority of the credit to Tracy McGrady (particularly considering the six-straight victories without Yao), I'm giving the credit to head coach Rick Adelman. It would be a travesty if Adelman did not win the Head Coach of the Year award at season's end. Other coaches have done an excellent job -- specifically the Hornets' Byron Scott, the Lakers' Phil Jackson and the Sixers' Mo Cheeks -- but Adelman has unquestionably put forth the best performance considering the talent level (or lack there of) of his roster.
The question on everyone's mind is, how are the Rockets doing it? There are two distinct reasons: 1) everyone knows their role and plays it every night, and 2) defense.
With Yao out of the lineup, someone had to step up and provide more offense than they normally would. Rafer Alston (aka "Skip To My Lou" of the And-1 Mixtape Tour) has been that someone. Alston is an inconsistent outside shooter, but he's been more aggressive attacking the rim in Yao's absence and his scoring average has subsequently increased.
"Rookie" forward Luis Scola has increased his offensive output, as well. I place rookie in quotes, because of course Scola is considered a legend in international ball. He's far from a spring chicken. However, all that matters right now is that he's knocking down some short-range jumpers and finishing around the rim with a variety of low-post maneuvers.
Small forward Shane Battier continues to play his role as a defensive specialist who is capable of knocking down triples (sort of like San Antonio's Bruce Bowen); Dikembe Mutombo has been patrolling the middle, blocking shots and waiving his finger, making him nearly perfect in his role as Yao's replacement at the center position; young forwards Carl Landry and Mike Harris have provided rebounding, energy and easy buckets in the lane; and Chuck Hayes brings intensity and hustle, as always.
Defensively, Adelman has the Rockets playing as a unit. When Mutombo is in, Alston, McGrady and Battier funnel penetrators toward Dikembe, and the old timer makes them pay. Battier and Hayes are phenomenal one-on-one defenders at their respective positions, and Luther Head picks up his share of steals off the pine.
It's all working right now for Houston. That said, I'd be shocked if they made any noise in the postseason -- not enough weaponry, and their commitment to hustle and defense will be matched by their opponents in the playoffs. Regardless, my hat is off to the Rockets' entire organization for the success they've had thus far this season.
While most people want to give a majority of the credit to Tracy McGrady (particularly considering the six-straight victories without Yao), I'm giving the credit to head coach Rick Adelman. It would be a travesty if Adelman did not win the Head Coach of the Year award at season's end. Other coaches have done an excellent job -- specifically the Hornets' Byron Scott, the Lakers' Phil Jackson and the Sixers' Mo Cheeks -- but Adelman has unquestionably put forth the best performance considering the talent level (or lack there of) of his roster.
The question on everyone's mind is, how are the Rockets doing it? There are two distinct reasons: 1) everyone knows their role and plays it every night, and 2) defense.
With Yao out of the lineup, someone had to step up and provide more offense than they normally would. Rafer Alston (aka "Skip To My Lou" of the And-1 Mixtape Tour) has been that someone. Alston is an inconsistent outside shooter, but he's been more aggressive attacking the rim in Yao's absence and his scoring average has subsequently increased.
"Rookie" forward Luis Scola has increased his offensive output, as well. I place rookie in quotes, because of course Scola is considered a legend in international ball. He's far from a spring chicken. However, all that matters right now is that he's knocking down some short-range jumpers and finishing around the rim with a variety of low-post maneuvers.
Small forward Shane Battier continues to play his role as a defensive specialist who is capable of knocking down triples (sort of like San Antonio's Bruce Bowen); Dikembe Mutombo has been patrolling the middle, blocking shots and waiving his finger, making him nearly perfect in his role as Yao's replacement at the center position; young forwards Carl Landry and Mike Harris have provided rebounding, energy and easy buckets in the lane; and Chuck Hayes brings intensity and hustle, as always.
Defensively, Adelman has the Rockets playing as a unit. When Mutombo is in, Alston, McGrady and Battier funnel penetrators toward Dikembe, and the old timer makes them pay. Battier and Hayes are phenomenal one-on-one defenders at their respective positions, and Luther Head picks up his share of steals off the pine.
It's all working right now for Houston. That said, I'd be shocked if they made any noise in the postseason -- not enough weaponry, and their commitment to hustle and defense will be matched by their opponents in the playoffs. Regardless, my hat is off to the Rockets' entire organization for the success they've had thus far this season.
Friday, March 7, 2008
College Basketball at an All-Time Low
I don't see any other way of putting it: college basketball is a joke this year. There are no dominant teams; yea, that's great for parity, but the parity is forced by a lack of talent. I'm not saying there is no talent out there, I'm saying it's the least NBA-ready talent I've ever seen.
The best ballers are bouncing after one year, and even they are a bit over-hyped. Kevin Durant received the royal treatment throughout last season, and while his numbers were staggering, I don't believe he's an eventual Hall of Fame type NBA player. He's averaging around 19 points per game in his rookie season, but he's near the very bottom of the league in field goal percentage. Of course his shot selection and basketball IQ will improve over time; I just think he's soft and his all-around offensive skills are overrated. He's a scorer, that's it. He's not a playmaker and he doesn't defend.
Greg Oden, the other early departure with a migraine-inducing amount of hype, will likely be a defensive force in the NBA for many years. However, this season's major injury may set his development back significantly, particularly on the offensive end. I like his length and he can definitely finish the easy ones, but I don't project him as a potential big-time scorer. He's a little too gawky and awkward, and like Durant, he's a twig. Throw some bulk on there, Greg.
Back to this year in college basketball. There are a couple of legitimate NBA talents -- namely Kansas State's Michael Beasley and Memphis' Derrick Rose. Honestly, after those two, I don't see any "can't miss" prospects.
People are in love with Indiana's Eric Gordon, and I do like his offensively versatility, he just strikes me as a player who will shoot a consistently low percentage in the NBA. He attempts wild shots and he suffers from gross overconfidence. Overconfidence is fine in a scorer, but gross overconfidence (like Zach Randolph in the NBA) hurts your teammates in the long run. Gordon does boast impressive range, though.
Stanford's big fella Brook Lopez is getting his share of press, as well. He's a high-intensity and hustle player, but I question his skill level. Active big men are a blessing in the NBA, so he'll certainly find a place somewhere, I just don't think it will be as a primary post player. Not even down the line. I think he's a solid bench big man who will bring energy, but not a top-tier lottery talent.
The rare players who I have been impressed with -- particularly Boston College's Tyrese Rice and Vanderbilt's Shan Foster -- aren't getting much love on draft-projection sites, specifically NBADraft.net. Rice opened everyone's eyes by dropping 46 points on No. 1 North Carolina, but I spotted his skills long before then. I loved his jumpshot when he was a wingman for Craig Smith and Jared Dudley a few years back, and since they moved on to the NBA, Rice has been exceptional while shouldering the load. He's a bit like Gordon in terms of confidence, but I think that style is necessary on his lesser-talented BC team; also, Rice is a more sure-handed and consistent scorer. The man is automatic if open, and he's pretty proficient with a hand in his face, too.
Rice may also be the best in the nation at using the threat of an outside shot to his advantage. He likes to bomb away early on to make the opposition weary of his range, and later on he pumps and stutter-steps to open up easier attempts in the lane. Rice really knows how to manipulate a defense.
Foster caught some eyes this week when he missed his first six three-point attempts in a game, and then connected on nine consecutive. Yea, that's pretty sick. Nine consecutive three-point makes. That performance alone speaks volumes about the kid: he's certainly not afraid to keep shooting if he starts off slow, and once he gets in rhythm -- it's lights out. I love his upright stroke and high release; he gets looks whenever he pleases. Foster has a collected, smooth style and he never appears phased in big spots. He's knocked down a ton of crucial second-half shots for Vandy this season.
As for the big picture, I think it's a two-horse race for the NCAA title -- North Carolina and Kansas. I don't want to get too specific about these two teams (because I just don't feel like it), but let's just say they are the most balanced offensive teams and they both have veteran leaders with big-game experience. Doesn't hurt to have explosive point guards like Ty Lawson (if healthy) and Sherron Collins, either.
Yes, there have been a few exciting games this year, but overall, I find college basketball difficult to watch when juxtaposed to the NBA. The NBA boasts such a cleaner, prettier style of offensive play. But hey, if you love defense, you can get plenty of it with the NCAA. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying defense isn't important -- in fact, in the long run, it's more important than offense -- I'm merely saying that I'd much rather watch an NBA shootout between the Warriors and Suns than a grinder between Louisville and Georgetown.
The best ballers are bouncing after one year, and even they are a bit over-hyped. Kevin Durant received the royal treatment throughout last season, and while his numbers were staggering, I don't believe he's an eventual Hall of Fame type NBA player. He's averaging around 19 points per game in his rookie season, but he's near the very bottom of the league in field goal percentage. Of course his shot selection and basketball IQ will improve over time; I just think he's soft and his all-around offensive skills are overrated. He's a scorer, that's it. He's not a playmaker and he doesn't defend.
Greg Oden, the other early departure with a migraine-inducing amount of hype, will likely be a defensive force in the NBA for many years. However, this season's major injury may set his development back significantly, particularly on the offensive end. I like his length and he can definitely finish the easy ones, but I don't project him as a potential big-time scorer. He's a little too gawky and awkward, and like Durant, he's a twig. Throw some bulk on there, Greg.
Back to this year in college basketball. There are a couple of legitimate NBA talents -- namely Kansas State's Michael Beasley and Memphis' Derrick Rose. Honestly, after those two, I don't see any "can't miss" prospects.
People are in love with Indiana's Eric Gordon, and I do like his offensively versatility, he just strikes me as a player who will shoot a consistently low percentage in the NBA. He attempts wild shots and he suffers from gross overconfidence. Overconfidence is fine in a scorer, but gross overconfidence (like Zach Randolph in the NBA) hurts your teammates in the long run. Gordon does boast impressive range, though.
Stanford's big fella Brook Lopez is getting his share of press, as well. He's a high-intensity and hustle player, but I question his skill level. Active big men are a blessing in the NBA, so he'll certainly find a place somewhere, I just don't think it will be as a primary post player. Not even down the line. I think he's a solid bench big man who will bring energy, but not a top-tier lottery talent.
The rare players who I have been impressed with -- particularly Boston College's Tyrese Rice and Vanderbilt's Shan Foster -- aren't getting much love on draft-projection sites, specifically NBADraft.net. Rice opened everyone's eyes by dropping 46 points on No. 1 North Carolina, but I spotted his skills long before then. I loved his jumpshot when he was a wingman for Craig Smith and Jared Dudley a few years back, and since they moved on to the NBA, Rice has been exceptional while shouldering the load. He's a bit like Gordon in terms of confidence, but I think that style is necessary on his lesser-talented BC team; also, Rice is a more sure-handed and consistent scorer. The man is automatic if open, and he's pretty proficient with a hand in his face, too.
Rice may also be the best in the nation at using the threat of an outside shot to his advantage. He likes to bomb away early on to make the opposition weary of his range, and later on he pumps and stutter-steps to open up easier attempts in the lane. Rice really knows how to manipulate a defense.
Foster caught some eyes this week when he missed his first six three-point attempts in a game, and then connected on nine consecutive. Yea, that's pretty sick. Nine consecutive three-point makes. That performance alone speaks volumes about the kid: he's certainly not afraid to keep shooting if he starts off slow, and once he gets in rhythm -- it's lights out. I love his upright stroke and high release; he gets looks whenever he pleases. Foster has a collected, smooth style and he never appears phased in big spots. He's knocked down a ton of crucial second-half shots for Vandy this season.
As for the big picture, I think it's a two-horse race for the NCAA title -- North Carolina and Kansas. I don't want to get too specific about these two teams (because I just don't feel like it), but let's just say they are the most balanced offensive teams and they both have veteran leaders with big-game experience. Doesn't hurt to have explosive point guards like Ty Lawson (if healthy) and Sherron Collins, either.
Yes, there have been a few exciting games this year, but overall, I find college basketball difficult to watch when juxtaposed to the NBA. The NBA boasts such a cleaner, prettier style of offensive play. But hey, if you love defense, you can get plenty of it with the NCAA. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying defense isn't important -- in fact, in the long run, it's more important than offense -- I'm merely saying that I'd much rather watch an NBA shootout between the Warriors and Suns than a grinder between Louisville and Georgetown.
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