Saturday, May 31, 2008

Are the Mets returning to their 2006 form?

Having won four of their last five, and playing with greater passion and intensity than they have all season, it's a fair question to ask. The Mets are putting together late-inning rallies and come from behind victories, two of the trademarks of the more successful 2006 team. But will this trend continue?

Well, as a Mets fan, you know I want to say yes. Unfortunately, it's not that simple. The Mets are still battling a slew of injuries, and their bullpen -- with the exception of the virtually unhittable Billy Wagner -- is beyond shaky.

As far as the injuries go, I find it hard to believe that right fielder Ryan Church will return to the lineup carrying the hot bat he held prior to his head injury. It's taken him quite awhile to shake off the side effects, and it wouldn't be realistic to expect him to pick up where he left off. Sure, maybe in three to four weeks he'll get his swing back; but who knows, maybe he won't. Maybe he'll be lost at the plate for the rest of the season.

I'm just saying, prepare yourselves Mets fans. Disaster strikes us often.

Then there's Moises Alou, who is injured for the 341st time in the past three seasons (including his final season in San Francisco.) Personally, I love the guy. He's 89 years old and he still makes .320 look like an afterthought -- watching him, it seems like everyone in the league should be hitting .300. It's that easy for Alou, he's a natural.

That said, even when he does return, he'll likely be injured again sometime within the following three weeks. I know, that's pessimistic, but try and tell me that's not a reasonable assumption.

If you ask me, Church and Alou are the Mets' third and fourth best hitters. Church has performed a bit over his head, but I'll give him the 4-spot, behind David Wright, Carlos Beltran and Alou (in that order). Yea, Jose Reyes has the better reputation, but Church is the more polished, professional hitter.

Oh and by the way, as my friend and astute fellow Mets supporter Adam "Fish" Goldsmith would like to point out -- what the hell is up with Reyes' never-ending streak of errors? Yea, the announcers on SNY (Gary Cohen and Ron Darling, in particular) like to rationalize by saying: "Reyes is a young player." All right, enough already. He's been in the league long enough now...he's a big boy. His bat is coming around of late, so all-around confidence shouldn't be an issue for Jose right now. Thanks for the helpful input, Mr. Goldsmith.

Also down with injury are Luis Castillo, Marlon Anderson and Angel Pagan. Of course, of the three, Castillo is the most important piece. Luis struggled early on, but he had been scorching of late and he's one of the Mets' top on-base percentage guys. He's getting old, but he remains a steady, reliable defensive player.

Anderson may be over the hill at this point, but he was the team's premier pinch hitter last year -- a well-deserved distinction. I don't know if he'll ever find his groove again, though. His hand and bat speeds have slowed significantly.

Pagan is no superstar, but he had a nice start to the season. He's a valuable utility outfielder whose presence would rid us of the not-quite-ready Nick Evans, and also keep Endy Chavez a little fresher.

On the pitching staff, there's the never ending Pedro Martinez/El Duque saga. Pedro will make his 9 millionth return from injury this week, and quite simply, who the hell knows with him. "They" say he looks good in rehab, but "they" always do. Usually he comes back, gets hit around, and gets hurt again. He's not like Alou who comes back and looks like a stud. I'd say enough is enough already, but I still think Pedro is better than Mike Pelfrey.

In regards to El Duque, I'd love to have him back at full strength. He was the Mets' top starting pitcher in the second half of the 2006 season, and he was better than solid in his outings last year. I just don't know if he'll ever be full strength again. However, he probably doesn't have to be at full strength to be at least as good as Claudio Vargas. Don't get me wrong, I respect what Vargas has done of late, he's just not a long-term 2008 solution.

I'll tell you what I really want to see. I want to see Aaron Heilman in the rotation...this year.

Yes. I know. Not happening.

Just hear me out. The guy has the third best stuff out of the Mets 15 rotating pitching options. After Wagner and Johan Santana, of course. Hitters are mustering up an extremely weak .190 average against Heilman with no runners on. Get him the ball at the beginning of the game, and let him dig his own holes if that's going to be the case. At this point, it's overtly clear that the guy can't handle inherited runners. But when he's the master of his own fate, he's not half bad. 92-95 mph riding fastball, plus changeup and a sneaky little slider.

My dream rotation? Santana, John Maine, Oliver Perez, El Duque and Heilman in that order.

But I know, I know -- it's not gonna happen. If I have to settle, I'll settle for El Duque and Pedro over Vargas and Pelfrey. I'm sorry, Pelfrey's just not ready -- the Dodgers got themselves out today, the kid didn't do anything special. He sucked for about six starts in a row before this one.

As for the rest of the bullpen, Duaner Sanchez just isn't the same pitcher that he was prior to his devastating injury, Matt Wise is a bum, Carlos Muniz is nothing better than a mop-up guy, and Joe Smith is more hittable than he probably should be. I love the way Scott Schoeneweis has performed, but is he really a lights out kinda guy? I think we know the truth. But he's a gamer, and he throws strikes -- I like the guy.

Pedro Feliciano remains nasty on lefties, but I wish we could trust him a little more for complete innings. With Heilman and Sanchez back there, everything is up to chance.

Where am I going with all this? I'm just saying, don't get your hopes up Mets fans. Do I think we are still a serious contender for a division title? Absolutely. Without question. Just don't forget about the countless number of "ifs" we have.

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