I don't see any other way of putting it: college basketball is a joke this year. There are no dominant teams; yea, that's great for parity, but the parity is forced by a lack of talent. I'm not saying there is no talent out there, I'm saying it's the least NBA-ready talent I've ever seen.
The best ballers are bouncing after one year, and even they are a bit over-hyped. Kevin Durant received the royal treatment throughout last season, and while his numbers were staggering, I don't believe he's an eventual Hall of Fame type NBA player. He's averaging around 19 points per game in his rookie season, but he's near the very bottom of the league in field goal percentage. Of course his shot selection and basketball IQ will improve over time; I just think he's soft and his all-around offensive skills are overrated. He's a scorer, that's it. He's not a playmaker and he doesn't defend.
Greg Oden, the other early departure with a migraine-inducing amount of hype, will likely be a defensive force in the NBA for many years. However, this season's major injury may set his development back significantly, particularly on the offensive end. I like his length and he can definitely finish the easy ones, but I don't project him as a potential big-time scorer. He's a little too gawky and awkward, and like Durant, he's a twig. Throw some bulk on there, Greg.
Back to this year in college basketball. There are a couple of legitimate NBA talents -- namely Kansas State's Michael Beasley and Memphis' Derrick Rose. Honestly, after those two, I don't see any "can't miss" prospects.
People are in love with Indiana's Eric Gordon, and I do like his offensively versatility, he just strikes me as a player who will shoot a consistently low percentage in the NBA. He attempts wild shots and he suffers from gross overconfidence. Overconfidence is fine in a scorer, but gross overconfidence (like Zach Randolph in the NBA) hurts your teammates in the long run. Gordon does boast impressive range, though.
Stanford's big fella Brook Lopez is getting his share of press, as well. He's a high-intensity and hustle player, but I question his skill level. Active big men are a blessing in the NBA, so he'll certainly find a place somewhere, I just don't think it will be as a primary post player. Not even down the line. I think he's a solid bench big man who will bring energy, but not a top-tier lottery talent.
The rare players who I have been impressed with -- particularly Boston College's Tyrese Rice and Vanderbilt's Shan Foster -- aren't getting much love on draft-projection sites, specifically NBADraft.net. Rice opened everyone's eyes by dropping 46 points on No. 1 North Carolina, but I spotted his skills long before then. I loved his jumpshot when he was a wingman for Craig Smith and Jared Dudley a few years back, and since they moved on to the NBA, Rice has been exceptional while shouldering the load. He's a bit like Gordon in terms of confidence, but I think that style is necessary on his lesser-talented BC team; also, Rice is a more sure-handed and consistent scorer. The man is automatic if open, and he's pretty proficient with a hand in his face, too.
Rice may also be the best in the nation at using the threat of an outside shot to his advantage. He likes to bomb away early on to make the opposition weary of his range, and later on he pumps and stutter-steps to open up easier attempts in the lane. Rice really knows how to manipulate a defense.
Foster caught some eyes this week when he missed his first six three-point attempts in a game, and then connected on nine consecutive. Yea, that's pretty sick. Nine consecutive three-point makes. That performance alone speaks volumes about the kid: he's certainly not afraid to keep shooting if he starts off slow, and once he gets in rhythm -- it's lights out. I love his upright stroke and high release; he gets looks whenever he pleases. Foster has a collected, smooth style and he never appears phased in big spots. He's knocked down a ton of crucial second-half shots for Vandy this season.
As for the big picture, I think it's a two-horse race for the NCAA title -- North Carolina and Kansas. I don't want to get too specific about these two teams (because I just don't feel like it), but let's just say they are the most balanced offensive teams and they both have veteran leaders with big-game experience. Doesn't hurt to have explosive point guards like Ty Lawson (if healthy) and Sherron Collins, either.
Yes, there have been a few exciting games this year, but overall, I find college basketball difficult to watch when juxtaposed to the NBA. The NBA boasts such a cleaner, prettier style of offensive play. But hey, if you love defense, you can get plenty of it with the NCAA. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying defense isn't important -- in fact, in the long run, it's more important than offense -- I'm merely saying that I'd much rather watch an NBA shootout between the Warriors and Suns than a grinder between Louisville and Georgetown.
Friday, March 7, 2008
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